The curious case of Nitish Kumar

It wouldn't be wrong to say that Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar seems to be one of the most confused politician of recent time. Few months before the May 2014 Lok Sabha elections, Nitish played the biggest gamble of his political life and broke all ties with alliance partner Bharatiya Janata Party opposing the elevation of Narendra Modi as the PM face of NDA. That decision was part of his optimism stemmed from favorable reports he was receiving from ground that by doing so he would get total support from Muslims which in turn pay him rich electoral dividend.

The actual verdict showed that Nitish was way off the mark in his political assessment and ended up with 2 seats in Loksabha elections. A thumping BJP win on the other hand in Bihar, even with a realignment of rivals, will give it positive vibes heading into a series of assembly elections this year and create a strong launchpad for Bihar in 2015.

In 2005, the JDU-BJP combine scripted a new chapter in Bihar’s history by ending Lalu’s 15-year reign and formed government with the agenda of ‘Good Governance’. Nitish’s first reign (2005-10) focused on improving law and order, strengthening institutions weakened by Lalu’s regime, and removing political interference from the State’s bureaucratic machinery. As law and order improved, Muslims became confident that an NDA regime wouldn’t discriminate against them and women felt safer on the streets.

There is no doubt that Nitish Kumar has brought a positive change in Bihar and because of that people had started seeing in a bigger role that too in center. But time has changed now, BJP along with Ramvilas Paswan’s LJP is in power in center while Nitish enjoying power with the support of same Lalu Prasad Yadav for whom he used to say that during the RJD regime, people seldom ventured out in the night hours but under his regime, people were on the streets even after midnight.

Elections are pending in Bihar this year and Nitish Kumar and RJD chief Lalu Prasad are in "undo-the-past" mode. Realizing their opponent would go overboard on reminding people of their past enmity, the bitter have started persuading people that the past would not be repeated. On the first day of 2015, Nitish pledged he would not allow the "Jungle Raj" (lawlessness) to resurface despite taking Lalu in his boat. Today, Lalu urged masses not to be scared of him.

Nitish’s sanguinity is solely based on electoral arithmetic. A combined Janata Parivar is expecting votes from, among others, Yadavs, Kurmis, Mahadalits, Muslims and Most Backward Classes (MBCs). These groups together constitute nearly 60 per cent of the state’s population. Interestingly, last two election cycles (2004 and 2009) have shown that there is 50 per cent probability of assembly elections following the trend of the preceding Lok Sabha elections.

Whatever may be the result, there is no doubt that Lalu Yadav will surely manage to gain something out of it. Also, BJP will retain its upper caste votes and will manage to get some of the vote from other castes because of anti-incumbency and Modi’s charisma among the youth. But the real mystery of this whole show revolves around Nitish Kumar. He may or may not, get enough seats for third consecutive time but one battle he is set to lose is the clash of perception.

There was a time when Nitish was seen as a person of high integrity having clean image. But now his association with Lalu Yadav is raising several questions among the people of Bihar. Even if Nitish manages to win Bihar this time, he will never be able to get back the badge of ‘Susashan Purush’ at the national level. Some of Nitish' supporters seem to feel that Lalu has become bit of a burden on the Bihar CM now. Their alliance is weighing Nitish down heavily and may erode his supporter base. Also, It is understood that Lalu is backing Nitish for an anti-BJP front, not as him as the CM.  The BJP leaders are amused by the alliance of Lalu and Nitish and they can be seen saying very often that “After the alliance with the RJD, the government is providing patronage to criminals”.

Brand Nitish and brand Lalu evoke contrasting responses in Bihar. Even after years of dilution, they retain their appeal across the state. Merger of contrasting brands tend to create confusion. Biharis are still clueless about what will the merged brand stand for. Will it be closer to brand Nitish with a clear focus on development? Or will the brand Lalu that has so far stood for a particular kind of social justice and communal harmony prevail? If the confusion persists, people may find it hard to identify with the merged entity.