एक रिटायर्ड आई.ए.एस का अरविन्द केजरीवाल पर अटूट विश्वास

पिछले दिनों की बात है, बैंकाक से दिल्ली आ रहा था| विमान की बगल वाली सीट पे एक बुजुर्ग बैठे थे| शुरू के एक घंटे में तो हम दोनों खुद मे ही मशगूल थे की तभी उन्होंने मुझसे पुछा “कहाँ के रहने वाले हो?”, मैंने बड़ी विनम्रता से कहा “जयपुर”| उन्होंने तपाक से कहा बीजेपी के राज में मजे कर रहे हो| मैंने कहा नहीं ऐसी तो कोई बात नहीं है और उनसे पुछा आप कहाँ रहते हैं? उम्मीद के अनुसार उन्होंने कहा दिल्ली!

बस फिर क्या था, पूरी वार्ता केजरीवाल बनाम मोदी हो गयी| मैंने पुछा क्या लगता है केजरीवाल सही काम कर रहा है? वो बोले “केजरीवाल करना तो बहुत कुछ चाहता है, लेकिन मोदी को गद्दी छिनने का डर है और वो केजरीवाल को काम नहीं करने दे रहा!” वो यही नहीं रुके, बोले मैं इतने साल से दिल्ली का निवासी हूँ, कभी नहीं देखा की इमानदारी से काम हो रहा हो| लोग कहते हैं की वो बंगले में रहता है, सरकारी गाडी में चलता है, विज्ञापन देता है... मैं उन सबसे पूछना चाहता हूँ क्या पुरानी सरकारें सड़क पे रहती थीं? वो भी यही सब करती थी और इसके साथ-साथ भ्रष्टाचार भी करती थी| उनसे तो बेहतर ही है केजरीवाल|”

मैंने पुछा आपका मोदी जी के बारे में क्या ख्याल है? वो बोले, आदमी इमानदार है पर घमंडी है| उसे केजरीवाल से डर लगता है, इसलिए ही वो केजरीवाल को परेशांन कर रहा है| अगर सच में देश का भला चाहता तो केजरीवाल को साथ लेकर चलता| पूरे देश में क्या आम आदमी पार्टी के एम् एल ए ही ख़राब हैं?

अब हम खाने में मशगूल थे, फिर वो अपनी एक किताब में मशगूल हो गए| मैं भी अपने आप में मशगूल हो गया| फिर वो तपाक से बोले “केजरीवाल ही देश का भविष्य है, यही एक इंसान है जो देश बदल सकता है|” मैंने कुछ न कहना ही बेहतर समझा|

अब हम दिल्ली पहुँच चुके थे| मैंने उनसे पुछा, आप इतनी बारीकी से हर बात को समझाते हैं, इसका कारण? वो बोले “I am a retired IAS and have worked with different governments, इसलिए ही इतने विश्वास से कहता हूँ केजरीवाल में विश्वास रखो, वो हम सभी को एक बेहतर कल देगा! ”

Smart Cities and RSS: Two contradictory sides of Narendra Modi

Soon after coming to power, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made a grand announcement of setting up 100 new smart cities in the country. Later, the ministry of urban development has prepared a draft concept note on the smart city scheme. The government had announced a plan to develop 100 smart cities to provide better amenities in urban areas. The 100 smart cities will include all state capitals and union territories. It will also comprise 44 cities in the population range of 1-4 million people, nine satellite cities with a population of 4 million or more, 10 cities that are of religious and tourist importance and 20 cities in the 0.5 to 1 million population range.

India is urbanizing at an unprecedented rate, so much which estimates suggest nearly 600 million of Indians will be living in cities by 2030, up from 290 million as reported in the 2001 census. It is clear that Prime Minister wants to take the living standard for big cities to a new level where 24X7 utility services becomes an essential part of public service delivery mechanism.  High quality infrastructure and technology based governance will be provided to the citizens.

The whole idea looks good for India as it will change the face of country in global market. But there are many other aspects too, which requires lot of brain storming. The very basic requirement to build a new smart city will required land pulling, that will add more fuel to the heat created due to the suggested changes in Land Acquisition Bill by NDA government. Even on ground, farmers are reluctant to give up their plots of land as they know their employment prospects in the new cities are dim, concentrated in low-wage and insecure informal work.

The other and the most interesting facet of smart cities concept is RSS, which is also a serious ‘backstage’ stakeholder in Narendra Modi lead government. It may be an 89 year old organisation, identified as representing a more conservative set of values. But the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) is witnessing steady progress by introducing many technologically advance programs. RSS knows that its growth is inversely proportional to the development of smart cities and there will be no place for RSS’s core Hindu ideology is any of the smart city and that will act as a barrier in its expansion.

It is evident that according to RSS, two different nations India and Bharat resides in our nation and RSS always bats for the very idea of ‘Bharat’. Their view suggest that the very idea of westernization persists deeply in the urban class which they called India.

RSS knows the idea of smart cities is so appealing that it will openly fascinate the rural crowd and will directly impact to their aspirations. It will be wrong to say that RSS is present in urban cities but majorly in terms of ideological connect, it is very strong among rural masses. Even today, ‘Shakha’ plays a vital role in the personality development of many rural and small town children.

On the other hand, smart cities will follow the western pattern of development which will consist of tall buildings, largely English speaking crowd, well decorative public spaces and high class infrastructure. It is obvious to understand that such places have no space for RSS to hold ‘Shakhas’ for engaging masses. A study suggests that in last one year ‘Shakhas’ have grown by 18% across country. No doubt, Modi’s popularity has played a key role in the sudden growth of RSS and enhanced its reachability towards urban youth.

Modi’s smart city plan is, commendably, linked to expanding manufacturing jobs. Newer and better urban infrastructure, in theory, will attract investment and jobs, but the principle of “if you build it, they will come,” in India as well as elsewhere in the world, has produced more white elephants than thriving cities. RSS used the same argument when Rajiv Gandhi was keen on introducing computers based infrastructure in India but now things are different. This time RSS can’t dare to oppose the idea at open platforms because of two very strong reasons. First, this time the ruling party is BJP, which considers RSS its ideological parent. Secondly, in this globalized era, RSS can’t afford the hating of aspiring youth which constitutes 65% of India’s population in total.

From a distance, it appears that RSS going through its golden phase but the truth is, RSS top brass is actually worried about the future of their organization. Modi’s political and ideological background deeply connected with RSS but since 2002, when Modi crown as the CM of Gujarat, their relationship saw many ups and down. During his 12 years long regime, he sidelined RSS, VHP and many other organizations which consider BJP as their political brother. But, you may call it the beauty of Indian politics, the same organization put their all weight and efforts behind Modi during 2014 general elections.    

Things are different now, despite of having differences on many issues, Modi and RSS are incomplete without each other and shaping up the idea of smart cities is need of the hour.  

This article was first published in Janta Ka Reporter.

The Battle of Uttar Pradesh: Here people vote for caste not leaders

The principal architect of Indian constitution Dr. BR Ambedkar once said “Caste is not a physical object like a wall of bricks or a line of barbed wire which prevents the Hindus from co-mingling and which has, therefore, to be pulled down. Caste is a notion; it is a state of the mind.” But in India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, where the name of Dr. Ambedkar holds a big impact, these words seem to be wrong. 

The debate between casting the vote and voting for caste has always been a heated one when it comes to elections in the Hindi heartland, and more so in Uttar Pradesh, which is not only bigger than many countries of the world, but is also a key player in deciding the national vote with its 80 Lok Sabha seats.

It is so evident in UP that the party which will be able to get 30% votes will emerge as a winner. But the whole ‘Dangal’ has stuck among 23% upper caste population, 41% other backward castes, 21.1% Dalits and 19.3% Muslims. In the battlefield, BSP chief Mayawati is considered to be the savior of Dalits whereas SP chief Mulayam is considered to be the rescuer of Muslims.

In last General elections, BJP won 73 seats out of 80 and that was because of the brilliant arithmetic BJP followed along with polarization while distributing tickets. In 2014, BJP fielded 25 OBCs, 17 Brahmins, 14 Thakurs, 17 Dalits, 3 Vaishays and one Pasi and Bhumihar each while 2 seats were given to Apna Dal. It means 27 tickets were given to OBC candidates if the Apna Dal is included. Interestingly, the BJP has always fought for 50 percent of the total votes since the remaining have traditionally never voted for the BJP.

This time too, the Bhartiya Janta Party is playing strategically and has appointed 23 OBCs as District level heads and 2 Dalits. The focus of BJP is to get 60% of upper caste vote and 32% of other backward castes. Party understands in presence of SP, BSP and Congress, it will not be able to woo Muslim voters towards itself. If Muslim votes will get split into BSP and fractions of SP then it will be beneficial for BJP and that’s the reason some SP leaders are blaming BJP for the fractions emerged in SP.

Recently, Supreme Court of India ruled out that politicians cant’s seek votes on the basis of religion, caste, creed or language and on the very next day BSP chief Mayawati releases a list of 403 candidates citing their religious and caste background. One may consider it as contempt of court but that represents the reality of political battleground of Uttar Pradesh.

Everyone understands the ticket distribution game of Mayawati. If three dominant castes and religions are added, the constitute 51 percent of the vote. If Muslim voters go in favour of the BSP, the scenario will be changed drastically if not then Muslims votes will be fragmented. If Muslims vote for Mayawati’s share may touch 40 percent but it seems unlikely. The changes in the pattern of the BSP’s ticket distribution in UP reflect these objectives. BSP is focusing on Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin combination.

This time Dalit Tsaritsa Mayawati has played a master stroke by giving more tickets to Muslims as she is keen to take advantage of split in Samajwadi Party, which usually a favorable option for Muslim community. Overall, Mayawati has given 97 tickets to Muslim candidates, 87 to Dalits, 106 to OBCs, 113 to upper castes (66 to Brahmins, 36 to Kshetriyas and 11 to Kayasthas, Vaishyas, Punjabis). This is actually the original formula which lead to a grand victory of Mayawati in year 2007.

On the other hand, another key player of Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party, which is on the verge to split into two sections always focused on Muslims and Yadavs. According to a study, 80% of Yadav votes and 50% of Muslim votes usually go with Samajwadi Party along with that party always able to get some votes from other communities as well. This time too, the ruling party is focusing to get 65% of Yadav-Muslim votes, 14% of Brahmin votes and the other 30% of backward castes. But their real problem is the party has divided into 2 camps and this may benefit BSP a way as Muslim vote will divert to it.

As far as Congress is concerned, it has no base left in Uttar Pradesh and it is solely looking towards SP for a tie up. Rahul Gandhi had rounds of Yatras but that will hardly be going to make an impact among voters.

The Election Commission has announced elections in 5 states and this battle will get more interesting in coming days. So far only BSP has officially announced a list of candidates and other key players, SP, BJP and Congress are holding their cards to make sure no way they make a wrong choice.

BJP, like in Bihar will go with the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and is keen to take advantage of Demonatisation. From the recent Opinion Polls, BJP seems to be a frontrunner and majority of people has supported PM Modi’s Demonitisation move but it will not so easy in absence of a CM face. The other and most popular face of UP, Akhilesh Yadav who is looking for a second term is having a tough time because of the fractions in family which lead to split in party. The stark reality is that caste and religion are the deciding factor in state politics and it will be interesting to see which party will emerge as champion.

                                                                                         

This article was first published in The Quint.