The Battle of Uttar Pradesh: Here people vote for caste not leaders

The principal architect of Indian constitution Dr. BR Ambedkar once said “Caste is not a physical object like a wall of bricks or a line of barbed wire which prevents the Hindus from co-mingling and which has, therefore, to be pulled down. Caste is a notion; it is a state of the mind.” But in India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh, where the name of Dr. Ambedkar holds a big impact, these words seem to be wrong. 

The debate between casting the vote and voting for caste has always been a heated one when it comes to elections in the Hindi heartland, and more so in Uttar Pradesh, which is not only bigger than many countries of the world, but is also a key player in deciding the national vote with its 80 Lok Sabha seats.

It is so evident in UP that the party which will be able to get 30% votes will emerge as a winner. But the whole ‘Dangal’ has stuck among 23% upper caste population, 41% other backward castes, 21.1% Dalits and 19.3% Muslims. In the battlefield, BSP chief Mayawati is considered to be the savior of Dalits whereas SP chief Mulayam is considered to be the rescuer of Muslims.

In last General elections, BJP won 73 seats out of 80 and that was because of the brilliant arithmetic BJP followed along with polarization while distributing tickets. In 2014, BJP fielded 25 OBCs, 17 Brahmins, 14 Thakurs, 17 Dalits, 3 Vaishays and one Pasi and Bhumihar each while 2 seats were given to Apna Dal. It means 27 tickets were given to OBC candidates if the Apna Dal is included. Interestingly, the BJP has always fought for 50 percent of the total votes since the remaining have traditionally never voted for the BJP.

This time too, the Bhartiya Janta Party is playing strategically and has appointed 23 OBCs as District level heads and 2 Dalits. The focus of BJP is to get 60% of upper caste vote and 32% of other backward castes. Party understands in presence of SP, BSP and Congress, it will not be able to woo Muslim voters towards itself. If Muslim votes will get split into BSP and fractions of SP then it will be beneficial for BJP and that’s the reason some SP leaders are blaming BJP for the fractions emerged in SP.

Recently, Supreme Court of India ruled out that politicians cant’s seek votes on the basis of religion, caste, creed or language and on the very next day BSP chief Mayawati releases a list of 403 candidates citing their religious and caste background. One may consider it as contempt of court but that represents the reality of political battleground of Uttar Pradesh.

Everyone understands the ticket distribution game of Mayawati. If three dominant castes and religions are added, the constitute 51 percent of the vote. If Muslim voters go in favour of the BSP, the scenario will be changed drastically if not then Muslims votes will be fragmented. If Muslims vote for Mayawati’s share may touch 40 percent but it seems unlikely. The changes in the pattern of the BSP’s ticket distribution in UP reflect these objectives. BSP is focusing on Dalit-Muslim-Brahmin combination.

This time Dalit Tsaritsa Mayawati has played a master stroke by giving more tickets to Muslims as she is keen to take advantage of split in Samajwadi Party, which usually a favorable option for Muslim community. Overall, Mayawati has given 97 tickets to Muslim candidates, 87 to Dalits, 106 to OBCs, 113 to upper castes (66 to Brahmins, 36 to Kshetriyas and 11 to Kayasthas, Vaishyas, Punjabis). This is actually the original formula which lead to a grand victory of Mayawati in year 2007.

On the other hand, another key player of Uttar Pradesh, Samajwadi Party, which is on the verge to split into two sections always focused on Muslims and Yadavs. According to a study, 80% of Yadav votes and 50% of Muslim votes usually go with Samajwadi Party along with that party always able to get some votes from other communities as well. This time too, the ruling party is focusing to get 65% of Yadav-Muslim votes, 14% of Brahmin votes and the other 30% of backward castes. But their real problem is the party has divided into 2 camps and this may benefit BSP a way as Muslim vote will divert to it.

As far as Congress is concerned, it has no base left in Uttar Pradesh and it is solely looking towards SP for a tie up. Rahul Gandhi had rounds of Yatras but that will hardly be going to make an impact among voters.

The Election Commission has announced elections in 5 states and this battle will get more interesting in coming days. So far only BSP has officially announced a list of candidates and other key players, SP, BJP and Congress are holding their cards to make sure no way they make a wrong choice.

BJP, like in Bihar will go with the face of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and is keen to take advantage of Demonatisation. From the recent Opinion Polls, BJP seems to be a frontrunner and majority of people has supported PM Modi’s Demonitisation move but it will not so easy in absence of a CM face. The other and most popular face of UP, Akhilesh Yadav who is looking for a second term is having a tough time because of the fractions in family which lead to split in party. The stark reality is that caste and religion are the deciding factor in state politics and it will be interesting to see which party will emerge as champion.

                                                                                         

This article was first published in The Quint.